Leak size is based on
- Stat value diff
- Win rate diff
- Opportunity count
Each term is explained below.
Stat Value Diff
Stat value diff is the difference between the current player’s stat value and the mean of the winning players’ stat values measured in standard deviations (SD).
Standard deviation is a measure of the amount of variation in the winning players’ stat values. A low standard deviation indicates that the winners’ stat values tend to be close, while a high standard deviation indicates that the values are spread out over a wider range.
Win Rate Diff
Win rate diff is the difference between the current player’s win rate and the mean of the winning players’ win rates measured in big blinds per 100 hands.
Leak Explorer uses the HM3 stat “All-in Adj bb/100” for win rate, which reduces the effect of luck by adjusting for all-in expected value.
Opportunity count is the number of opportunities available to the current player to act on the stat.
How Leak Size is Calculated
Leak size is calculated using the following formula.
LeakSize = Abs(StatValueDiff) * WinRateDiff * OpportunityCount / MaxOpportunityCount
Where MaxOpportunityCount is the maximum of all current player opportunity counts.